"""
Feedback Loop & Learning System
Enables continuous improvement through outcome tracking and model retraining
"""

import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from typing import Dict, List, Any, Optional, Tuple
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
from uuid import UUID
import structlog
from scipy import stats
from collections import defaultdict

logger = structlog.get_logger()


class FeedbackLearningSystem:
    """
    Manages feedback collection, model performance tracking, and retraining triggers.

    Key Responsibilities:
    1. Aggregate feedback from applied insights
    2. Calculate model performance metrics (accuracy, precision, recall)
    3. Detect performance degradation
    4. Trigger automatic retraining when needed
    5. Calibrate confidence scores based on actual accuracy
    6. Generate learning insights for model improvement

    Workflow:
    - Feedback continuously recorded via AIInsightsClient
    - Periodic performance analysis (daily/weekly)
    - Automatic alerts when performance degrades
    - Retraining recommendations with priority
    """

    def __init__(
        self,
        performance_threshold: float = 0.85,  # Minimum acceptable accuracy
        degradation_threshold: float = 0.10,   # 10% drop triggers alert
        min_feedback_samples: int = 30,        # Minimum samples for analysis
        retraining_window_days: int = 90       # Consider last 90 days
    ):
        self.performance_threshold = performance_threshold
        self.degradation_threshold = degradation_threshold
        self.min_feedback_samples = min_feedback_samples
        self.retraining_window_days = retraining_window_days

    async def analyze_model_performance(
        self,
        model_name: str,
        feedback_data: pd.DataFrame,
        baseline_performance: Optional[Dict[str, float]] = None
    ) -> Dict[str, Any]:
        """
        Analyze model performance based on feedback data.

        Args:
            model_name: Name of the model (e.g., 'hybrid_forecaster', 'yield_predictor')
            feedback_data: DataFrame with columns:
                - insight_id
                - applied_at
                - outcome_date
                - predicted_value
                - actual_value
                - error
                - error_pct
                - accuracy
            baseline_performance: Optional baseline metrics for comparison

        Returns:
            Performance analysis with metrics, trends, and recommendations
        """
        logger.info(
            "Analyzing model performance",
            model_name=model_name,
            feedback_samples=len(feedback_data)
        )

        if len(feedback_data) < self.min_feedback_samples:
            return self._insufficient_feedback_response(
                model_name, len(feedback_data), self.min_feedback_samples
            )

        # Step 1: Calculate current performance metrics
        current_metrics = self._calculate_performance_metrics(feedback_data)

        # Step 2: Analyze performance trend over time
        trend_analysis = self._analyze_performance_trend(feedback_data)

        # Step 3: Detect performance degradation
        degradation_detected = self._detect_performance_degradation(
            current_metrics, baseline_performance, trend_analysis
        )

        # Step 4: Generate retraining recommendation
        retraining_recommendation = self._generate_retraining_recommendation(
            model_name, current_metrics, degradation_detected, trend_analysis
        )

        # Step 5: Identify error patterns
        error_patterns = self._identify_error_patterns(feedback_data)

        # Step 6: Calculate confidence calibration
        confidence_calibration = self._calculate_confidence_calibration(feedback_data)

        logger.info(
            "Model performance analysis complete",
            model_name=model_name,
            current_accuracy=current_metrics['accuracy'],
            degradation_detected=degradation_detected['detected'],
            retraining_recommended=retraining_recommendation['recommended']
        )

        return {
            'model_name': model_name,
            'analyzed_at': datetime.utcnow().isoformat(),
            'feedback_samples': len(feedback_data),
            'date_range': {
                'start': feedback_data['outcome_date'].min().isoformat(),
                'end': feedback_data['outcome_date'].max().isoformat()
            },
            'current_performance': current_metrics,
            'baseline_performance': baseline_performance,
            'trend_analysis': trend_analysis,
            'degradation_detected': degradation_detected,
            'retraining_recommendation': retraining_recommendation,
            'error_patterns': error_patterns,
            'confidence_calibration': confidence_calibration
        }

    def _insufficient_feedback_response(
        self, model_name: str, current_samples: int, required_samples: int
    ) -> Dict[str, Any]:
        """Return response when insufficient feedback data."""
        return {
            'model_name': model_name,
            'analyzed_at': datetime.utcnow().isoformat(),
            'status': 'insufficient_feedback',
            'feedback_samples': current_samples,
            'required_samples': required_samples,
            'current_performance': None,
            'recommendation': f'Need {required_samples - current_samples} more feedback samples for reliable analysis'
        }

    def _calculate_performance_metrics(
        self, feedback_data: pd.DataFrame
    ) -> Dict[str, float]:
        """
        Calculate comprehensive performance metrics.

        Metrics:
        - Accuracy: % of predictions within acceptable error
        - MAE: Mean Absolute Error
        - RMSE: Root Mean Squared Error
        - MAPE: Mean Absolute Percentage Error
        - Bias: Systematic over/under prediction
        - R²: Correlation between predicted and actual
        """
        predicted = feedback_data['predicted_value'].values
        actual = feedback_data['actual_value'].values

        # Filter out invalid values
        valid_mask = ~(np.isnan(predicted) | np.isnan(actual))
        predicted = predicted[valid_mask]
        actual = actual[valid_mask]

        if len(predicted) == 0:
            return {
                'accuracy': 0,
                'mae': 0,
                'rmse': 0,
                'mape': 0,
                'bias': 0,
                'r_squared': 0
            }

        # Calculate errors
        errors = predicted - actual
        abs_errors = np.abs(errors)
        pct_errors = np.abs(errors / actual) * 100 if np.all(actual != 0) else np.zeros_like(errors)

        # MAE and RMSE
        mae = float(np.mean(abs_errors))
        rmse = float(np.sqrt(np.mean(errors ** 2)))

        # MAPE (excluding cases where actual = 0)
        valid_pct_mask = actual != 0
        mape = float(np.mean(pct_errors[valid_pct_mask])) if np.any(valid_pct_mask) else 0

        # Accuracy (% within 10% error)
        within_10pct = np.sum(pct_errors <= 10) / len(pct_errors) * 100

        # Bias (mean error - positive = over-prediction)
        bias = float(np.mean(errors))

        # R² (correlation)
        if len(predicted) > 1 and np.std(actual) > 0:
            correlation = np.corrcoef(predicted, actual)[0, 1]
            r_squared = correlation ** 2
        else:
            r_squared = 0

        return {
            'accuracy': round(within_10pct, 2),  # % within 10% error
            'mae': round(mae, 2),
            'rmse': round(rmse, 2),
            'mape': round(mape, 2),
            'bias': round(bias, 2),
            'r_squared': round(r_squared, 3),
            'sample_size': len(predicted)
        }

    def _analyze_performance_trend(
        self, feedback_data: pd.DataFrame
    ) -> Dict[str, Any]:
        """
        Analyze performance trend over time.

        Returns trend direction (improving/stable/degrading) and slope.
        """
        # Sort by date
        df = feedback_data.sort_values('outcome_date').copy()

        # Calculate rolling accuracy (7-day window)
        df['rolling_accuracy'] = df['accuracy'].rolling(window=7, min_periods=3).mean()

        # Linear trend
        if len(df) >= 10:
            # Use day index as x
            df['day_index'] = (df['outcome_date'] - df['outcome_date'].min()).dt.days

            # Fit linear regression
            valid_mask = ~np.isnan(df['rolling_accuracy'])
            if valid_mask.sum() >= 10:
                x = df.loc[valid_mask, 'day_index'].values
                y = df.loc[valid_mask, 'rolling_accuracy'].values

                slope, intercept, r_value, p_value, std_err = stats.linregress(x, y)

                # Determine trend
                if p_value < 0.05:
                    if slope > 0.1:
                        trend = 'improving'
                    elif slope < -0.1:
                        trend = 'degrading'
                    else:
                        trend = 'stable'
                else:
                    trend = 'stable'

                return {
                    'trend': trend,
                    'slope': round(float(slope), 4),
                    'p_value': round(float(p_value), 4),
                    'significant': p_value < 0.05,
                    'recent_performance': round(float(df['rolling_accuracy'].iloc[-1]), 2),
                    'initial_performance': round(float(df['rolling_accuracy'].dropna().iloc[0]), 2)
                }

        # Not enough data for trend
        return {
            'trend': 'insufficient_data',
            'slope': 0,
            'p_value': 1.0,
            'significant': False
        }

    def _detect_performance_degradation(
        self,
        current_metrics: Dict[str, float],
        baseline_performance: Optional[Dict[str, float]],
        trend_analysis: Dict[str, Any]
    ) -> Dict[str, Any]:
        """
        Detect if model performance has degraded.

        Degradation triggers:
        1. Current accuracy below threshold (85%)
        2. Significant drop from baseline (>10%)
        3. Degrading trend detected
        """
        degradation_reasons = []
        severity = 'none'

        # Check absolute performance
        if current_metrics['accuracy'] < self.performance_threshold * 100:
            degradation_reasons.append(
                f"Accuracy {current_metrics['accuracy']:.1f}% below threshold {self.performance_threshold*100}%"
            )
            severity = 'high'

        # Check vs baseline
        if baseline_performance and 'accuracy' in baseline_performance:
            baseline_acc = baseline_performance['accuracy']
            current_acc = current_metrics['accuracy']
            drop_pct = (baseline_acc - current_acc) / baseline_acc

            if drop_pct > self.degradation_threshold:
                degradation_reasons.append(
                    f"Accuracy dropped {drop_pct*100:.1f}% from baseline {baseline_acc:.1f}%"
                )
                severity = 'high' if severity != 'high' else severity

        # Check trend
        if trend_analysis.get('trend') == 'degrading' and trend_analysis.get('significant'):
            degradation_reasons.append(
                f"Degrading trend detected (slope: {trend_analysis['slope']:.4f})"
            )
            severity = 'medium' if severity == 'none' else severity

        detected = len(degradation_reasons) > 0

        return {
            'detected': detected,
            'severity': severity,
            'reasons': degradation_reasons,
            'current_accuracy': current_metrics['accuracy'],
            'baseline_accuracy': baseline_performance.get('accuracy') if baseline_performance else None
        }

    def _generate_retraining_recommendation(
        self,
        model_name: str,
        current_metrics: Dict[str, float],
        degradation_detected: Dict[str, Any],
        trend_analysis: Dict[str, Any]
    ) -> Dict[str, Any]:
        """
        Generate retraining recommendation based on performance analysis.

        Priority Levels:
        - urgent: Severe degradation, retrain immediately
        - high: Performance below threshold, retrain soon
        - medium: Trending down, schedule retraining
        - low: Stable, routine retraining
        - none: No retraining needed
        """
        if degradation_detected['detected']:
            severity = degradation_detected['severity']

            if severity == 'high':
                priority = 'urgent'
                recommendation = f"Retrain {model_name} immediately - severe performance degradation"
            elif severity == 'medium':
                priority = 'high'
                recommendation = f"Schedule {model_name} retraining within 7 days"
            else:
                priority = 'medium'
                recommendation = f"Schedule routine {model_name} retraining"

            return {
                'recommended': True,
                'priority': priority,
                'recommendation': recommendation,
                'reasons': degradation_detected['reasons'],
                'estimated_improvement': self._estimate_retraining_benefit(
                    current_metrics, degradation_detected
                )
            }

        # Check if routine retraining is due (e.g., every 90 days)
        # This would require tracking last_retrained_at
        else:
            return {
                'recommended': False,
                'priority': 'none',
                'recommendation': f"{model_name} performance is acceptable, no immediate retraining needed",
                'next_review_date': (datetime.utcnow() + timedelta(days=30)).isoformat()
            }

    def _estimate_retraining_benefit(
        self,
        current_metrics: Dict[str, float],
        degradation_detected: Dict[str, Any]
    ) -> Dict[str, Any]:
        """Estimate expected improvement from retraining."""
        baseline_acc = degradation_detected.get('baseline_accuracy')
        current_acc = current_metrics['accuracy']

        if baseline_acc:
            # Expect to recover 70-80% of lost performance
            expected_improvement = (baseline_acc - current_acc) * 0.75
            expected_new_acc = current_acc + expected_improvement

            return {
                'expected_accuracy_improvement': round(expected_improvement, 2),
                'expected_new_accuracy': round(expected_new_acc, 2),
                'confidence': 'medium'
            }

        return {
            'expected_accuracy_improvement': 'unknown',
            'confidence': 'low'
        }

    def _identify_error_patterns(
        self, feedback_data: pd.DataFrame
    ) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
        """
        Identify systematic error patterns.

        Patterns:
        - Consistent over/under prediction
        - Higher errors for specific ranges
        - Day-of-week effects
        - Seasonal effects
        """
        patterns = []

        # Pattern 1: Systematic bias
        mean_error = feedback_data['error'].mean()
        if abs(mean_error) > feedback_data['error'].std() * 0.5:
            direction = 'over-prediction' if mean_error > 0 else 'under-prediction'
            patterns.append({
                'pattern': 'systematic_bias',
                'description': f'Consistent {direction} by {abs(mean_error):.1f} units',
                'severity': 'high' if abs(mean_error) > 10 else 'medium',
                'recommendation': 'Recalibrate model bias term'
            })

        # Pattern 2: High error for large values
        if 'predicted_value' in feedback_data.columns:
            # Split into quartiles
            feedback_data['value_quartile'] = pd.qcut(
                feedback_data['predicted_value'],
                q=4,
                labels=['Q1', 'Q2', 'Q3', 'Q4'],
                duplicates='drop'
            )

            quartile_errors = feedback_data.groupby('value_quartile')['error_pct'].mean()

            if len(quartile_errors) == 4 and quartile_errors['Q4'] > quartile_errors['Q1'] * 1.5:
                patterns.append({
                    'pattern': 'high_value_error',
                    'description': f'Higher errors for large predictions (Q4: {quartile_errors["Q4"]:.1f}% vs Q1: {quartile_errors["Q1"]:.1f}%)',
                    'severity': 'medium',
                    'recommendation': 'Add log transformation or separate model for high values'
                })

        # Pattern 3: Day-of-week effect
        if 'outcome_date' in feedback_data.columns:
            feedback_data['day_of_week'] = pd.to_datetime(feedback_data['outcome_date']).dt.dayofweek

            dow_errors = feedback_data.groupby('day_of_week')['error_pct'].mean()

            if len(dow_errors) >= 5 and dow_errors.max() > dow_errors.min() * 1.5:
                worst_day = dow_errors.idxmax()
                day_names = ['Monday', 'Tuesday', 'Wednesday', 'Thursday', 'Friday', 'Saturday', 'Sunday']

                patterns.append({
                    'pattern': 'day_of_week_effect',
                    'description': f'Higher errors on {day_names[worst_day]} ({dow_errors[worst_day]:.1f}%)',
                    'severity': 'low',
                    'recommendation': 'Add day-of-week features to model'
                })

        return patterns

    def _calculate_confidence_calibration(
        self, feedback_data: pd.DataFrame
    ) -> Dict[str, Any]:
        """
        Calculate how well confidence scores match actual accuracy.

        Well-calibrated model: 80% confidence → 80% accuracy
        """
        if 'confidence' not in feedback_data.columns:
            return {'calibrated': False, 'reason': 'No confidence scores available'}

        # Bin by confidence ranges
        feedback_data['confidence_bin'] = pd.cut(
            feedback_data['confidence'],
            bins=[0, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100],
            labels=['<60', '60-70', '70-80', '80-90', '90+']
        )

        calibration_results = []

        for conf_bin in feedback_data['confidence_bin'].unique():
            if pd.isna(conf_bin):
                continue

            bin_data = feedback_data[feedback_data['confidence_bin'] == conf_bin]

            if len(bin_data) >= 5:
                avg_confidence = bin_data['confidence'].mean()
                avg_accuracy = bin_data['accuracy'].mean()
                calibration_error = abs(avg_confidence - avg_accuracy)

                calibration_results.append({
                    'confidence_range': str(conf_bin),
                    'avg_confidence': round(avg_confidence, 1),
                    'avg_accuracy': round(avg_accuracy, 1),
                    'calibration_error': round(calibration_error, 1),
                    'sample_size': len(bin_data),
                    'well_calibrated': calibration_error < 10
                })

        # Overall calibration
        if calibration_results:
            overall_calibration_error = np.mean([r['calibration_error'] for r in calibration_results])
            well_calibrated = overall_calibration_error < 10

            return {
                'calibrated': well_calibrated,
                'overall_calibration_error': round(overall_calibration_error, 2),
                'by_confidence_range': calibration_results,
                'recommendation': 'Confidence scores are well-calibrated' if well_calibrated
                                else 'Recalibrate confidence scoring algorithm'
            }

        return {'calibrated': False, 'reason': 'Insufficient data for calibration analysis'}

    async def generate_learning_insights(
        self,
        performance_analyses: List[Dict[str, Any]],
        tenant_id: str
    ) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
        """
        Generate high-level insights about learning system performance.

        Args:
            performance_analyses: List of model performance analyses
            tenant_id: Tenant identifier

        Returns:
            Learning insights for system improvement
        """
        insights = []

        # Insight 1: Models needing urgent retraining
        urgent_models = [
            a for a in performance_analyses
            if a.get('retraining_recommendation', {}).get('priority') == 'urgent'
        ]

        if urgent_models:
            model_names = ', '.join([a['model_name'] for a in urgent_models])

            insights.append({
                'type': 'warning',
                'priority': 'urgent',
                'category': 'system',
                'title': f'Urgent Model Retraining Required: {len(urgent_models)} Models',
                'description': f'Models requiring immediate retraining: {model_names}. Performance has degraded significantly.',
                'impact_type': 'system_health',
                'confidence': 95,
                'metrics_json': {
                    'tenant_id': tenant_id,
                    'urgent_models': [a['model_name'] for a in urgent_models],
                    'affected_count': len(urgent_models)
                },
                'actionable': True,
                'recommendation_actions': [{
                    'label': 'Retrain Models',
                    'action': 'trigger_model_retraining',
                    'params': {'models': [a['model_name'] for a in urgent_models]}
                }],
                'source_service': 'ai_insights',
                'source_model': 'feedback_learning_system'
            })

        # Insight 2: Overall system health
        total_models = len(performance_analyses)
        healthy_models = [
            a for a in performance_analyses
            if not a.get('degradation_detected', {}).get('detected', False)
        ]

        health_pct = (len(healthy_models) / total_models * 100) if total_models > 0 else 0

        if health_pct < 80:
            insights.append({
                'type': 'warning',
                'priority': 'high',
                'category': 'system',
                'title': f'Learning System Health: {health_pct:.0f}%',
                'description': f'{len(healthy_models)} of {total_models} models are performing well. System-wide performance review recommended.',
                'impact_type': 'system_health',
                'confidence': 90,
                'metrics_json': {
                    'tenant_id': tenant_id,
                    'total_models': total_models,
                    'healthy_models': len(healthy_models),
                    'health_percentage': round(health_pct, 1)
                },
                'actionable': True,
                'recommendation_actions': [{
                    'label': 'Review System Health',
                    'action': 'review_learning_system',
                    'params': {'tenant_id': tenant_id}
                }],
                'source_service': 'ai_insights',
                'source_model': 'feedback_learning_system'
            })

        # Insight 3: Confidence calibration issues
        poorly_calibrated = [
            a for a in performance_analyses
            if not a.get('confidence_calibration', {}).get('calibrated', True)
        ]

        if poorly_calibrated:
            insights.append({
                'type': 'opportunity',
                'priority': 'medium',
                'category': 'system',
                'title': f'Confidence Calibration Needed: {len(poorly_calibrated)} Models',
                'description': 'Confidence scores do not match actual accuracy. Recalibration recommended.',
                'impact_type': 'system_improvement',
                'confidence': 85,
                'metrics_json': {
                    'tenant_id': tenant_id,
                    'models_needing_calibration': [a['model_name'] for a in poorly_calibrated]
                },
                'actionable': True,
                'recommendation_actions': [{
                    'label': 'Recalibrate Confidence Scores',
                    'action': 'recalibrate_confidence',
                    'params': {'models': [a['model_name'] for a in poorly_calibrated]}
                }],
                'source_service': 'ai_insights',
                'source_model': 'feedback_learning_system'
            })

        return insights

    async def calculate_roi(
        self,
        feedback_data: pd.DataFrame,
        insight_type: str
    ) -> Dict[str, Any]:
        """
        Calculate ROI for applied insights.

        Args:
            feedback_data: Feedback data with business impact metrics
            insight_type: Type of insight (e.g., 'demand_forecast', 'safety_stock')

        Returns:
            ROI calculation with cost savings and accuracy metrics
        """
        if len(feedback_data) == 0:
            return {'status': 'insufficient_data', 'samples': 0}

        # Calculate accuracy
        avg_accuracy = feedback_data['accuracy'].mean()

        # Estimate cost savings (would be more sophisticated in production)
        # For now, use impact_value from insights if available
        if 'impact_value' in feedback_data.columns:
            total_impact = feedback_data['impact_value'].sum()
            avg_impact = feedback_data['impact_value'].mean()

            return {
                'insight_type': insight_type,
                'samples': len(feedback_data),
                'avg_accuracy': round(avg_accuracy, 2),
                'total_impact_value': round(total_impact, 2),
                'avg_impact_per_insight': round(avg_impact, 2),
                'roi_validated': True
            }

        return {
            'insight_type': insight_type,
            'samples': len(feedback_data),
            'avg_accuracy': round(avg_accuracy, 2),
            'roi_validated': False,
            'note': 'Impact values not tracked in feedback'
        }