Improve AI logic
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Urtzi Alfaro
385
services/forecasting/app/ml/scenario_planner.py
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385
services/forecasting/app/ml/scenario_planner.py
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"""
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Scenario Planning System
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What-if analysis for demand forecasting
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"""
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import pandas as pd
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import numpy as np
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from typing import Dict, List, Any, Optional
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from datetime import datetime, date, timedelta
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import structlog
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from enum import Enum
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logger = structlog.get_logger()
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class ScenarioType(str, Enum):
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"""Types of scenarios"""
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BASELINE = "baseline"
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OPTIMISTIC = "optimistic"
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PESSIMISTIC = "pessimistic"
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CUSTOM = "custom"
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PROMOTION = "promotion"
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EVENT = "event"
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WEATHER = "weather"
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PRICE_CHANGE = "price_change"
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class ScenarioPlanner:
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"""
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Scenario planning for demand forecasting.
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Allows testing "what-if" scenarios:
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- What if we run a promotion?
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- What if there's a local festival?
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- What if weather is unusually bad?
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- What if we change prices?
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"""
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def __init__(self, base_forecaster=None):
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"""
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Initialize scenario planner.
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Args:
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base_forecaster: Base forecaster to use for baseline predictions
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"""
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self.base_forecaster = base_forecaster
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async def create_scenario(
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self,
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tenant_id: str,
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inventory_product_id: str,
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scenario_name: str,
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scenario_type: ScenarioType,
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start_date: date,
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end_date: date,
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adjustments: Dict[str, Any]
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) -> Dict[str, Any]:
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"""
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Create a forecast scenario with adjustments.
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Args:
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tenant_id: Tenant identifier
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inventory_product_id: Product identifier
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scenario_name: Name for the scenario
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scenario_type: Type of scenario
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start_date: Scenario start date
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end_date: Scenario end date
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adjustments: Dictionary of adjustments to apply
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Returns:
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Scenario forecast results
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"""
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logger.info(
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"Creating forecast scenario",
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tenant_id=tenant_id,
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inventory_product_id=inventory_product_id,
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scenario_name=scenario_name,
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scenario_type=scenario_type
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)
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# Generate baseline forecast first
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baseline_forecast = await self._generate_baseline_forecast(
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tenant_id=tenant_id,
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inventory_product_id=inventory_product_id,
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start_date=start_date,
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end_date=end_date
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)
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# Apply scenario adjustments
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scenario_forecast = self._apply_scenario_adjustments(
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baseline_forecast=baseline_forecast,
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adjustments=adjustments,
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scenario_type=scenario_type
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)
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# Calculate impact
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impact_analysis = self._calculate_scenario_impact(
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baseline_forecast=baseline_forecast,
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scenario_forecast=scenario_forecast
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)
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return {
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'scenario_id': f"scenario_{tenant_id}_{inventory_product_id}_{datetime.now().strftime('%Y%m%d%H%M%S')}",
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'scenario_name': scenario_name,
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'scenario_type': scenario_type,
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'tenant_id': tenant_id,
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'inventory_product_id': inventory_product_id,
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'date_range': {
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'start': start_date.isoformat(),
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'end': end_date.isoformat()
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},
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'baseline_forecast': baseline_forecast,
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'scenario_forecast': scenario_forecast,
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'impact_analysis': impact_analysis,
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'adjustments_applied': adjustments,
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'created_at': datetime.now().isoformat()
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}
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async def compare_scenarios(
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self,
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scenarios: List[Dict[str, Any]]
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) -> Dict[str, Any]:
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"""
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Compare multiple scenarios side-by-side.
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Args:
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scenarios: List of scenario results from create_scenario()
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Returns:
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Comparison analysis
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"""
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if len(scenarios) < 2:
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return {'error': 'Need at least 2 scenarios to compare'}
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comparison = {
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'scenarios_compared': len(scenarios),
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'scenario_names': [s['scenario_name'] for s in scenarios],
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'comparison_metrics': {}
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}
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# Extract total demand for each scenario
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for scenario in scenarios:
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scenario_name = scenario['scenario_name']
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scenario_forecast = scenario['scenario_forecast']
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total_demand = sum(f['predicted_demand'] for f in scenario_forecast)
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comparison['comparison_metrics'][scenario_name] = {
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'total_demand': total_demand,
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'avg_daily_demand': total_demand / len(scenario_forecast) if scenario_forecast else 0,
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'peak_demand': max(f['predicted_demand'] for f in scenario_forecast) if scenario_forecast else 0
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}
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# Determine best and worst scenarios
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total_demands = {
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name: metrics['total_demand']
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for name, metrics in comparison['comparison_metrics'].items()
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}
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comparison['best_scenario'] = max(total_demands, key=total_demands.get)
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comparison['worst_scenario'] = min(total_demands, key=total_demands.get)
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comparison['demand_range'] = {
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'min': min(total_demands.values()),
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'max': max(total_demands.values()),
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'spread': max(total_demands.values()) - min(total_demands.values())
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}
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return comparison
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async def _generate_baseline_forecast(
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self,
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tenant_id: str,
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inventory_product_id: str,
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start_date: date,
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end_date: date
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) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
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"""
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Generate baseline forecast without adjustments.
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Args:
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tenant_id: Tenant identifier
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inventory_product_id: Product identifier
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start_date: Start date
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end_date: End date
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Returns:
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List of daily forecasts
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"""
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# Generate date range
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dates = []
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current_date = start_date
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while current_date <= end_date:
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dates.append(current_date)
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current_date += timedelta(days=1)
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# Placeholder forecast (in real implementation, call forecasting service)
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baseline = []
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for forecast_date in dates:
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baseline.append({
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'date': forecast_date.isoformat(),
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'predicted_demand': 100, # Placeholder
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'confidence_lower': 80,
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'confidence_upper': 120
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})
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return baseline
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def _apply_scenario_adjustments(
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self,
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baseline_forecast: List[Dict[str, Any]],
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adjustments: Dict[str, Any],
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scenario_type: ScenarioType
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) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
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"""
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Apply adjustments to baseline forecast.
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Args:
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baseline_forecast: Baseline forecast data
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adjustments: Adjustments to apply
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scenario_type: Type of scenario
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Returns:
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Adjusted forecast
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"""
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scenario_forecast = []
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for day_forecast in baseline_forecast:
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adjusted_forecast = day_forecast.copy()
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# Apply different adjustment types
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if 'demand_multiplier' in adjustments:
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# Multiply demand by factor
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multiplier = adjustments['demand_multiplier']
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adjusted_forecast['predicted_demand'] *= multiplier
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adjusted_forecast['confidence_lower'] *= multiplier
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adjusted_forecast['confidence_upper'] *= multiplier
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if 'demand_offset' in adjustments:
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# Add/subtract fixed amount
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offset = adjustments['demand_offset']
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adjusted_forecast['predicted_demand'] += offset
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adjusted_forecast['confidence_lower'] += offset
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adjusted_forecast['confidence_upper'] += offset
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if 'event_impact' in adjustments:
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# Apply event-specific impact
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event_multiplier = adjustments['event_impact']
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adjusted_forecast['predicted_demand'] *= event_multiplier
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if 'weather_impact' in adjustments:
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# Apply weather adjustments
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weather_factor = adjustments['weather_impact']
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adjusted_forecast['predicted_demand'] *= weather_factor
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if 'price_elasticity' in adjustments and 'price_change_percent' in adjustments:
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# Apply price elasticity
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elasticity = adjustments['price_elasticity']
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price_change = adjustments['price_change_percent']
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demand_change = -elasticity * price_change # Negative correlation
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adjusted_forecast['predicted_demand'] *= (1 + demand_change)
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# Ensure non-negative demand
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adjusted_forecast['predicted_demand'] = max(0, adjusted_forecast['predicted_demand'])
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adjusted_forecast['confidence_lower'] = max(0, adjusted_forecast['confidence_lower'])
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scenario_forecast.append(adjusted_forecast)
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return scenario_forecast
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def _calculate_scenario_impact(
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self,
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baseline_forecast: List[Dict[str, Any]],
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scenario_forecast: List[Dict[str, Any]]
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) -> Dict[str, Any]:
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"""
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Calculate impact of scenario vs baseline.
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Args:
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baseline_forecast: Baseline forecast
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scenario_forecast: Scenario forecast
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Returns:
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Impact analysis
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"""
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baseline_total = sum(f['predicted_demand'] for f in baseline_forecast)
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scenario_total = sum(f['predicted_demand'] for f in scenario_forecast)
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difference = scenario_total - baseline_total
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percent_change = (difference / baseline_total * 100) if baseline_total > 0 else 0
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return {
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'baseline_total_demand': baseline_total,
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'scenario_total_demand': scenario_total,
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'absolute_difference': difference,
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'percent_change': percent_change,
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'impact_category': self._categorize_impact(percent_change),
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'days_analyzed': len(baseline_forecast)
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}
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def _categorize_impact(self, percent_change: float) -> str:
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"""Categorize impact magnitude"""
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if abs(percent_change) < 5:
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return "minimal"
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elif abs(percent_change) < 15:
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return "moderate"
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elif abs(percent_change) < 30:
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return "significant"
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else:
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return "major"
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def generate_predefined_scenarios(
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self,
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base_scenario: Dict[str, Any]
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) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
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"""
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Generate common predefined scenarios for comparison.
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Args:
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base_scenario: Base scenario parameters
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Returns:
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List of scenario configurations
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"""
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scenarios = []
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# Baseline scenario
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scenarios.append({
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'scenario_name': 'Baseline',
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'scenario_type': ScenarioType.BASELINE,
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'adjustments': {}
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})
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# Optimistic scenario
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scenarios.append({
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'scenario_name': 'Optimistic',
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'scenario_type': ScenarioType.OPTIMISTIC,
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'adjustments': {
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'demand_multiplier': 1.2, # 20% increase
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'description': '+20% demand increase'
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}
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})
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# Pessimistic scenario
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scenarios.append({
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'scenario_name': 'Pessimistic',
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'scenario_type': ScenarioType.PESSIMISTIC,
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'adjustments': {
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'demand_multiplier': 0.8, # 20% decrease
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'description': '-20% demand decrease'
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}
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})
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# Promotion scenario
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scenarios.append({
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'scenario_name': 'Promotion Campaign',
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'scenario_type': ScenarioType.PROMOTION,
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'adjustments': {
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'demand_multiplier': 1.5, # 50% increase
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'description': '50% promotion boost'
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}
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})
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# Bad weather scenario
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scenarios.append({
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'scenario_name': 'Bad Weather',
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'scenario_type': ScenarioType.WEATHER,
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'adjustments': {
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'weather_impact': 0.7, # 30% decrease
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'description': 'Bad weather reduces foot traffic'
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}
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})
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# Price increase scenario
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scenarios.append({
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'scenario_name': 'Price Increase 10%',
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'scenario_type': ScenarioType.PRICE_CHANGE,
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'adjustments': {
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'price_elasticity': 1.2, # Elastic demand
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'price_change_percent': 0.10, # 10% price increase
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'description': '10% price increase with elastic demand'
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}
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})
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return scenarios
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